Adversity and the Monkey

Over the previous week, the energy and economic crisis in the USA, especially the failures of major Wall Street institutions brought on by the sub-prime mortgage crisis, has featured prominently in various conversations I have had with people within the entertainment sector. Coupled with the crash of some of our largest local unregistered saving schemes, the fallout could spell disaster in the short to medium term for the creative industries in Jamaica. The widespread loss of their 401Ks and galloping inflation driven mainly by high fuel prices in the USA, had already begun to impact on recreation habits and lifestyle of the average American.
The statistics reveal that over the last eight months, Americans are traveling less frequently and taking shorter, essential trips. There is growing evidence suggesting a trend towards a reduction of leisure activities and time as people’s real disposable incomes are being eroded. One wonders if this had any direct effect on the reportedly low turnout at Reggae Sumfest this year and how it will impact the winter tourist season for 2008-2009. Any fallout in that November to February period could have negative effects on the local entertainment sector, as it is usually our premier tourist season and generates meaningful employment for artistes and musicians. Large festivals like Rebel Salute and Air Jamaica Jazz and Blues, which attract a significant international audience might also feel the pinch in 2009, unless there is a speedy recovery.
Global music sales had already dropped 8% in 2007, according to a report from the International Federation of the Phonographic Industries. USA album sales plummeted last year from 2006. For the first time since Nielsen Soundscan started tracking genre sales in 1991, all 12 genres dropped, with rap music down 30% and country music down 16%. Physical sales of CDs and DVDs fell 13% to just over US$15 billion. According to research conducted by the NPD Marketing Group, overall music spending in the US in 2007 was down by 10%, from US$44 to US$40 per capita.
There is a famous local proverb about the monkey and the puss in adverse times. Currently, for the fall season, anecdotal evidence shows that some itineraries for live musical tours have either been postponed or shortened because of low advance sales. Many economists predict that this recession will persist for at least two more years. Bearing this in mind, our local artistes and tour managers may need to put more emphasis on booking show dates outside of the US and aim instead for places like Asia, Australia and Europe in order to compensate for the inevitable further shrinking of the US market.
A few days ago I overhead a conversation between the CEO of Events ‘R’ Us and a senior executive at Kwick Erect Scaffolding Ltd. These gentlemen represent companies that are two of the larger suppliers of specialized equipment and services to live events. One individual asked the other how was business in September, to which the answer was, that in terms of sale volumes, September was the worst month of the year so far. The other conversant responded that the current situation was worse than he had ever experienced in his many years in the business. In Jamaica’s entertainment sector, September is traditionally the tamarind season because it is the month in which the least live events are held. There is no doubt in my mind that this year in particular, the situation has been compounded by the adverse economic environment globally.
Other than annual and brand name events, most of the larger live functions currently being staged are in fact for promotional purposes, being hosted by large companies like Flow and Digicel or to mass market product lines like Heineken and Guinness from Diageo. This has forced a realignment of strategies by promoters and event planners, who now stage multiple small events rather than one large event. In this context, house and theme parties are again back in vogue. Happily, the recent series of celebrations for Usain Bolt was a boon during this depressed period for the industry.
Hopefully, we are now close to the end of this low season, as under normal conditions, the Heroes Weekend signifies a surge in cultural activity and commences the build up of events towards the very busy Christmas period.